INQUIRY 2009-10

Security and Stability in South Asia Conference

April 8-10, 2010

Convened by

Conflict Management Initiative, Helsinki, Finland

Dear Delegates:

As the war in Afghanistan is in its ninth year, as India and Pakistan resume talks for the first time since the November 2008 attack on Mumbai, as Kashmir continues to remain a contentious issue in the region, and as all the countries of South Asia struggle with high poverty and growing inequality rates, Conflict Management Initiative is convening this conference to encourage new understanding, new thinking, and new steps forward to address these and other issues. We thank you for your willingness to participate and your commitment to moving the dialogue forward. Below are the issues that will be addressed in each of the committees during the conference. We look forward to seeing you in April.

Sincerely,

Khudejha Asghar

Chad Gordon

Maia Majumder

Brian O’Reilly

Ben Perlstein

Alisha Sett

Tomo Takaki

• • •

Governance Committee

A. In a number of countries in South Asia, there has been an ongoing tug-of-war between civilian authorities and the military for national leadership, either directly through coups or indirectly through a weak civilian government and public confidence in a military with continuity and influence. Examples include, but are not limited to, Pakistan and Bangladesh. In Pakistan, there has been a succession of military dictators, and even now, with a civilian government in place, the military is often viewed as the power behind the scenes. In Bangladesh, the military has frequently stepped into power, most recently in 2008, but has also remained content to adjudicate between opposing parties in order to prevent a breakdown in conditions. Adding to these governance challenges can be the strength of other independent institutions in countries, ranging from the judiciary to religious institutions. These often competing entities can make governing difficult, if not impossible. And while there is no one solution for all countries, the delegates are asked to consider how to strengthen governance in South Asia. Are civilian governments the best option for South Asia as it contends with many interwoven issues? What difficulties does a strong military and weak civilian government pose for countries? What kind of other institutions should be supported, such as the judiciary or the media, and what type of restrictions can there be to ensure a peaceful state? Why does the military hold such an important role in the governance of South Asian countries? What is the current involvement of the international community in promoting various forms of governance, and what role should it play?

Delegates are asked to define what are the necessary pieces of good governance that each country should strive to develop. Delegates are also asked to discuss the role and scope of the military in governing a country and its potential benefits and drawbacks.

B. In its Corruption Perceptions Index, Transparency international lists Afghanistan as the second most corrupt country in the world, only beating out Somalia in terms of openness. Bangladesh and Pakistan also rank in the bottom quarter of the index, and India barely makes it into the top half. Corruption in governance, from bribery and smuggling to assault cover-ups and arbitrary arrests, provides perhaps the single biggest reason for pessimism with regards to the future of the region. How much of the corruption in the region is due to a 'culture of corruption'? How much of this culture of corruption can be changed? Is there a difference between petty, low-level corruption that happens every day, and in a sense becomes a daily harassment, and large scale corruption by top government officials? What are some methods of fighting corruption on all levels? Do people need to be educated and empowered to refuse to contribute to corrupt practice, such as with the zero-rupee note? If police forces do not treat citizens respectfully and equally before the law, can they expect the citizens to respect the law in turn? Most importantly, will South Asia’s enormous youth population stand behind the idea of democracy if their voices are drowned out by an entrenched governing caste?

Delegates are asked to develop a region-wide effort for combating corruption, taking into consideration whether or not there is a culture of corruption and how corruption in South Asian governments affects the region’s economies, the attitudes of the governed, and governance.

C. Given the colonial history of South Asia and the creation of arbitrary borders that sliced ethnic communities into sections, there has been much criticism of the reliance on the Western model of a centralized state in favor of a more autonomous system (as had existed under various empires before the intrusion of the British empire). Should governments be decentralized in an attempt to better represent local communities? Is there a real danger of a devolution to warlordism and local power bases? Does the idea of a unitary, centralized state mirror the tradition of governance in South Asia of localized rule, and does the Western assumption of a centralized, sovereign state necessarily work in South Asia? How much autonomy should be afforded to local communities without splitting apart the authority of the state? How can the government integrate formerly independent areas of control into the fold of governance, and is it fair or effective to have special laws which affect only one area of a country? Should there be different levels of citizenship in South Asia, depending on which region one lives in? What might be the strengths and challenges of redefining the state as a loose amalgamation of provincial communities with higher levels of power and autonomy than currently exist in countries like India, for example? Is the South Asia of the future likely to move toward smaller states, like in the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, or is it likely to move toward a more unified region like the European Union? What are the pros and cons of both?

Delegates are asked to examine the nature of the centralization of power in South Asia, its ramifications on local issues, and to recommend what the South Asia of 2060 should look like.

D. Across South Asia, addiction rates are climbing. Afghanistan produces 93% of the world’s poppy, the plant used to make opiate drugs like heroin. Is this because of the absolute profitability of poppy by products, or a government failure to establish functional markets and ensure property rights? How much does the Taliban movement encourage or benefit from these sales? How much do variation in poppy cultivation rates depend on variable conditions like weather and market demand, and much of it is in response to political factors? Porous border also allow for the movement of drug crops and drugs in the region. What can governments do to combat illegal drug use? How does the drug trade contribute to local instability and what are the broader implications of the South Asian drug trade?

Delegates are asked to devise a regional policy for contending with the drug trade, taking into account the impact on economies, local populations, illicit markets, and terrorism.

• • •

Security Committee

A. Insurgency and violence is a major problem for all states in South Asia. Countries all across South Asia have been stricken by violent discontent. From the Naxalites in India, to the Taliban in Afghanistan, to the Islamic and separatist movements in Pakistan, these issues dominate the headlines and are major issues that each state faces. They are all incited by different causes and grievances. Whether spurred by ethnic, religious, or linguistic tensions, insurgencies, especially ones utilizing terrorism, can have a variety of goals and objectives but are often seen as uniformly dangerous in ambition. What is the best way to combat an insurgency? Do purely military approaches work, as Sri Lanka has done, or should there be an element of addressing underlying causes? In what measure are these insurgencies and violent movements spurred by dissatisfaction with governance and an inadequate share of resources? Will funneling resources to disadvantaged groups help avert the problem of armed conflict? How much of these movements are a reaction against economic exploitation and insufficient employment opportunities? And how should governments contend with them if they initially began as a reaction to discriminatory policies but have now taken on a life of their own? Would better governance through rule of law help avoid these issues? Does the measure of trust in the state rest in government institutions like the court system and schools and does this relate to solving intra-state conflicts?

The delegates are asked to evaluate the causes of anti-state violence within South Asia and brainstorm ways to reduce the threat of violence against the state, as well as cross-border refuge and support. Particularly, the delegates should debate the effectiveness of military means to combat insurgency.

B. Many in the international community believe that a third world war could start on the border of India and Pakistan. Four wars between the two states have taken place since independence in 1947. Both are nuclear states, which some argue increase the challenge of easing tensions between the two states and others argue is the ultimate stabilizing factor. Given the tendency for India and Pakistan to reach nuclear brinkmanship every few years, what is the probability of a minor war escalating into a nuclear conflict? Should there be a pan-South Asian nuclear policy, and what form would that take? How can regional and international actors encourage more dialogue and a lessening of tensions between the two countries? Should governments, both in South Asia and internationally, strive for disarmament or continue to support proliferation outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty? Why do countries seek and maintain nuclear arms? For security reasons? For national pride? For regional power?

As the world’s largest democracy, with a more clear relationship of between the civilian government and the military, which reports to it, India’s nuclear arsenal is often seen as more stable. Pakistan’s internal nuclear security is often perceived as highly unstable, in light of the ongoing tensions between the military and the civilian government and because of Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan’s role in disseminating highly sensitive information to other countries. Recently, President Zardari handed over control of the nuclear arsenal to Prime Minister Gilani. What is the likelihood of terrorists gaining control of the nuclear arsenal? Who should be responsible for the safety of the arsenal in both countries? Is it best protected under military control, or should its control remain under the civilian government?

The delegates are asked to work to establish a constructive forum for Pakistan and India to discuss their concerns and grievances. The delegates are also asked to review the nuclear stability of South Asia, in terms of non state actors, as well as the prospect of major war between the two nuclear armed powers, India and Pakistan, and to propose a nuclear policy for the next 50 years.

C. The security of a country depends on the ability of the state to protect its citizens from internal and external threats. South Asian governments have been plagued both by organized insurgencies with overt and direct political goals such as autonomy or independence, and terrorism with more covert aims, including the destabilization of the state. Violence against the state has been both external and internal, and forms of internal non-state security threats include kidnappings, suicide bombings on civilians, direct attacks on government facilities, and acid attacks on women. Within a country’s borders, what conditions allow terrorism to thrive? To what extent should security take priority over personal freedom? How can suicide attacks be prevented? What steps must each government take to secure its civilians against daily threats of attack? Should governance be responsible for terrorist attacks formulated within their borders, even if these attacks are carried out elsewhere? Is it the responsibility of civilian security forces (such as the police) or the military to control terrorism within a country’s borders? What are the potential advantages and dangers of blurring the lines between the police and the military?

The delegates are asked to draft a procedure for responding to cross-border terrorism occurring within South Asia, and to consider the roles of the army versus the police in containing threats.

• • •

Economic Issues Committee

A. The European Union is considered by many to be a great achievement in the facilitation of international trade, although it is still finding its way. The free movement of goods and workers across borders, according to economic theory, results in a more efficient market—though this freedom often comes at the price of national interests. In South Asia, SAARC (the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) exists as “platform for the peoples of South Asia to work together in a spirit of friendship, trust and understanding. It aims to accelerate the process of economic and social development in Member States.” Can SAARC transform into a more EU-like body that creates a space for better-integrated regional trade? Is it in the best interest of individual South Asian nations to pursue greater economic integration, even at the expense of economic/monetary and foreign policy independence? What benefits can South Asian nations gain from uniform trade policy? Can South Asian nations find areas for large scale trade? If so, what might they be able to exchange? Can any/all South Asian countries create a structure of secure property rights and open, uncorrupt markets to foster this trade? What would the further development of SAARC mean for its regional neighbors and international trading partners?

Delegates are asked to determine what the future direction of SAARC should be and examine the possibilities and problems for creating greater regional trade cooperation.

B. The paradox of economic growth is that it is both enriching and expensive. In order to open a factory, one needs an electrical grid; free trade and low import tariffs are great—if there are roads and ports for goods to enter the market. All activities of the state designed to engender a more highly functioning economy take money, to pay for the necessary labor and equipment. Both labor and equipment also need easy access to the job sites, and generally, that means access to public or private transportation. According to Indian entrepreneur Nadan Nilekani, economic growth must be coupled with growth in infrastructure, respect for the environment, and the avoidance of expensive, pollutant fossil fuels. How can South Asian countries hit the accelerator on economic growth while avoiding the debt problems that plague many Western nations? Can South Asian economies run like a Ferrari, but drive an electric car? Is the agrarian labor force in South Asia ready to take advantage of infrastructure spending? Should South Asia's economy be a labor intensive one or a more industrialized one? Can green-agriculture become a South Asian reality? And can South Asian countries, especially Afghanistan, address the drug trade by making other crops more profitable through further modernization in their economies and market structures?

Delegates are asked to recommend ways for South Asian countries to maximize economic growth while minimizing environmental impact. Will South Asian economies become a victim of their own growth due to their continued reliance of fossil fuels? Can a good economic plan and a responsible model of infrastructure spending and development combat black markets (especially the drug trade) by creating other employment opportunities?

C. It is a historical truth that, in most cases, economic growth raises national standards of living and allows for more leisure activities, and thereby making room for citizens to focus more on social and political progress. South Asia houses the world’s largest democracy in India, and every other nation is at least titularly democratic. At the same time, much of the working population still struggles for basic rights. Furthermore, many of South Asia’s development projects are lead by Non-Governmental Organizations (or at least, organizations outside government), ranging from the UN in Nepal, to BRAC in Bangladesh, to the U.S. military in Afghanistan. Will large NGO-led development projects in South Asia affect governments’ abilities to develop on their own? What further social and political progress is being blocked due to South Asia’s economic troubles, and is the work of human rights NGOs at all in conflict with development? How has India’s recent economic successes impacted the region’s ability to develop? Is India’s success story replicable in other South Asian countries, or are South Asian governments and NGOs only complicating matters by looking at the Indian model?

Delegates are asked to make recommendations for the future interaction between state governments and NGOs. Delegates are asked to examine the link between economic development and rights advancement, and whether South Asian economies will grow into supporting a more politically powerful citizenry in regional states. Do NGOs delegitimize governments by providing services to the populace that the government should or might?

• • •

Rights and Responsibilities Committee

A. Economic development in South Asia has, to a certain extent, come at the expense of human rights. The coexistence of extreme poverty and excessive wealth in the region has allowed elites to exploit impoverished communities, and while economic growth has benefited the middle class, it has done little to improve the position of the extreme poor. The region of South Asia has seen a rise in child malnourishment and decline in access to clean water, partially due to policies such as privatization. The experience of poverty is discrimination, state repression, corruption, insecurity, and violence: the poor experience discrimination in institutions that are meant to protect them, such as police stations and hospitals, are subject to violence from the state and physical and economic insecurity, and are trapped in poverty by systems that rely on bribery. The deprivation of the poor is more than economic—it is a lack of educational opportunities, employment opportunities, health services, and opportunities for public participation. Economic growth has yet to offer any substantial gain for the poorest in the region. Are new strategies necessary? How should South Asian governments address the rights of the poor in substantive policies? What mechanisms can improve levels of public participation in society for the poorest? What must be done in order to change the way the poor are treated in South Asian societies? What is the role of the international community in ensuring that the rights of the poor are protected? How can poverty be sustainably reduced in South Asian communities? Is this a regional issue, to be tackled collaboratively, or is this a country by country issue? Is it possible to eliminate poverty? What are the implications of relying on the government versus non-governmental organizations to deliver services to the poor? Which sector should take the lead in organizing efforts? How can local civil society organizations ensure that aid is delivered to those in need rather than those with power? What social settlement is acceptable when addressing issues of poverty--how should poverty be defined in South Asia? What is an acceptable level of poverty?

Delegates are asked to design a strategy for eliminating poverty within the region, and to consider the relationship between South Asian governments, non-profit organizations, and international non-governmental organizations in alleviating poverty.

B. The state of Kerala in India easily has the highest literacy rate in the region at an incredible 90.8%. However, other countries in the region fall very far behind this curve. Furthermore, literacy in women is often substantially lower than literacy in men. In such a way, gender inequality and education are interlinked and perpetuated. How has Kerala managed to excel in the field of literacy, and with such consistency between genders? Can neighboring countries implement similar education techniques? Why have women fallen so consistently behind in terms of literacy, and should women have equal access to education? Additionally, seeing literacy as a right-of-passage into citizenship: in these countries- where women do have the vote- how does this affect how many women compete for elected office?

Delegates are asked to consider the role of women in society and the impact of gender discrimination in South Asia and recommend how women might be included in political and economic policymaking. How should South Asia take advantage of this valuable resource?

C. South Asia is considered a part of the developing world, and because of its status as such, the region is tremendously susceptible to “diseases of poverty” such as malaria: diseases that persist today only in the poorest parts of the world. South Asia’s geographic location, bordering the Indian Sea, further complicates the situation. Because of poverty, governments in the region have not prioritized water sanitation, and this fundamental flaw in infrastructure makes the region more vulnerable to waterborne diseases of poverty such as cholera. In such a manner, poverty and disease are inherently linked in the region. How may governments in the region approach this cycle from both the healthcare and the socioeconomic perspective? Should more focus be put on treatment of these diseases of poverty, or on their prevention through installing a more stable infrastructure? Can both be implemented at once? Whose expertise should be included in this project planning: doctors, policy-makers, engineers, diplomats, local governments, civilians, national governments, etc?

Delegates are asked to consider how the countries of South Asian can work together to address both the infrastructure and health care needs.

D. South Asia, with the exception of Sri Lanka, has emerged as the most illiterate region in the world with 400 million adults in the region accounting for half the world's uneducated. India, the largest country in the region, is poised to be, in the next millennium, home to the largest group of illiterate people in the world despite constitutional commitments, statements and lamentations in Parliament. Lack of political will is evident in Pakistan and Bangladesh, although the latter has been making great strides in recent years. These three countries together contain over 97 percent of South Asia's illiterate adult population. ''There has been no political will . . . education will bring about a change at the grassroots level in the rural areas and the feudal ruling elite never wanted to break the status quo,'' says an official in Pakistan's Directorate of Schools. Huge differences exist in the quality of education imparted in private schools patronized by the rich and the government schools where standards are low. ''There should be an end to class-based education,'' the official said. [Ranjit Dev Raj]

The delegates are asked to consider unexplored ways of tackling the large gap to be filled in the education sector in South Asia, at both the policy level as well as from the grassroots. What role can and should the international community play in this effort?

• • •

Resources Committee

A. Water is a limited resource that has come under considerable strain as the world’s population increases. Therefore, as water becomes the “next oil”, are water conflicts in South Asia destined to increase- both within countries and between them? Or will this vital resource lead to more cooperation? Currently, access to clean drinking water in the region is very limited, due to both lack of sanitation infrastructure and appropriate policy-making. Seen first as a necessary commodity for agriculture, water quantity has taken precedence over water quality from the perspective of most local and national governments in the region. While water quality impacts the health of civilians, water quantity impacts the people’s economy. How can both quality and quantity be taken into consideration as policy-makers move forward? Should one be emphasized more than the other? Who should decide? How should the role of private enterprises change?

Delegates are asked to consider the major sources of water within the South Asian region and to discuss the ways in which South Asian actors (governmental and non-governmental) can collaborate to improve water quantity, quality and access across the region.

B. As the world globalizes, more energy than ever is consumed on a daily basis. South Asia, as it thrusts itself into this globalizing world, contributes to this consumption and thus, to the depletion of fossil fuels. An alternative that has been considered universally has become nuclear energy. However, nuclear energy is often politically controversial. Considering the agricultural makeup of the region, biofuels are also an option that could certainly be explored. What other alternative energy sources should be considered? Should the governments of the region fund research in such fields? What potential consequences could arise from searching for new energy sources?

Delegates are asked to identify means of developing alternative energy sources in South Asia.

C. South Asia’s climate will be largely influenced by India and China’s development. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, India is the fourth largest producer of CO2 emissions and steadily growing. At the Copenhagen conference, India and China made a concerted effort not to agree on a deal that would hamper their development. How can South Asia create climate controls that will both power their development and reduce their impact on the global climate? Should developed and developing countries be put under different carbon emission standards?

The delegates are asked to outline an agreement on sustainable development for South Asia.

D. Since partition in 1947, territorial disputes have been a major cause of conflict in South Asia. Ranging from border disputes between nations to civil wars among ethnic groups, land has played a central role in South Asian politics. More recently, Pakistan has been fighting Taliban forces over land and influence along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Also, Bangladesh has been dealing with internal land disputes between Buddhist tribal groups and Muslim settlers in its southeastern region. A long-standing land dispute is the Northeastern region of India, where different ethnic groups struggle with India’s government for territory. Can South Asia become a developed region without solving its land disputes? How can South Asia balance its large populations with the land available? How do territorial disputes influence policy makers?

The delegates are asked to examine all the major land disputes in the region and draft feasible next steps to resolve these disputes.

• • •

Religion and Identity Committee

A. South Asia is one of the most diverse regions in the world. Complexity exists not just in terms of religion and ethnicity, but also in interpretations of national identity and historical narrative. The beacons of nationalism in post-independence India have long since disappeared and there has been a flare up of religious tensions—Hindu-Muslim in particular—a call for more local autonomy by several states, and widespread insurgencies inspired by severe inequalities. How will or should India work towards upholding its national values of “secular pluralism” in the face of the realities that come along with religious and economic diversity? Since independence, Pakistan has strived to build a cohesive society based on “Muslim nationalism,” amidst tremendous tribal and ethnic diversity. What philosophy, perhaps not yet tried or discovered, can define the basis of their larger Pakistani identity? Afghanistan has one of the richest tribal traditions in the world, a culture that has survived decades of war. With eroding trust in the national government, and unconventional power structures currently acting parallel to the government at the center, what is future of the “Afghan identity”? What does having a South Asian identity mean today? Does this regional consciousness even exist?

The delegates are asked to consider unexplored frameworks for identity and political organization in South Asia, and to define what being South Asian will mean in 2060.

B. South Asia is a culturally and spiritually rich region, where religion is often central to personal identity. Yet all too often religion in South Asia appears as a political tool or a vehicle for violence and extremism. From religiously motivated riots in India to Islamic militant attacks throughout the region, religion is often most visible to the external world in association with social upheaval. Religious political parties and organizations often champion the ideologies behind the religious tension, and often play a hand in facilitating conflict. When it comes to national and political identity, what is/should be the role of religion in South Asia? Should there be separation between religion and politics in the region, or does religion have a valuable and necessary place in the relationship between South Asian people and their governments? Can democracy thrive in South Asia without organizing based on religious affiliation? Should legal institutions be based on, or at least influenced by, religious legal standards? How might the answers to these questions be different for different groups and countries in South Asia?

The delegates are asked to develop a vision of how the South Asia’s religions can enhance the region’s future and the future of its people.

C. Religious education in South Asia is over a thousand years old. Muslim religious schools, popularly referred to as madrassahs, have had a profound impact on South Asian society. Today, however, religious schools, especially on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, are increasingly associated with Islamic militancy. The actual role of these schools in the ongoing religious violence in the region, as well as data on enrollment and curriculum, are highly disputed. What is the role of religious education in South Asia? What should South Asian governments do to better distinguish between valuable cultural institutions and centers of extremism when it comes to religious schools?

The delegates are asked to consider how religious education in South Asia can be reformed to promote its more constructive contributions to South Asian society, without attacking religious values, or impinging on the religious preferences of the people.

• • •

Kashmir Committee

A. The Kashmir issue encompasses many fundamental—and unanswered—questions of identity, political legitimacy, and power in South Asia. When it comes to establishing a settlement in Kashmir, one of the central issues is whose voice has the best claim to shaping the future. Groups on all sides of the disagreement have engaged with the question of Kashmiri autonomy, and which group within Kashmir is best fit to represent the Kashmir population. Which political or non-political figure or group is the true representative of Kashmiri aspirations? When it comes to autonomy, and Kashmir’s official status regarding the Indian government, what effects has Article 370 had on Kashmir?

The delegates are asked to develop a plan for electing or authorizing a legitimate representative group, or groups, that can best reflect the diversity and interests of the Kashmiri people, to be consulted directly in pursuit of a future political settlement.

B. In many regions where there is political ambiguity and unresolved disagreement, responsibility for monitoring the quality of life and administration of government services can also be unclear. In its in-between status, physically and politically, Kashmir is often confronted with this uncertainty, and it has sometimes been exposed. For example, the 2005 Kashmir earthquakes presented a very grim picture of life in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, which is also considered to be a haven for terrorist camps. Will Pakistan allow international intervention to examine the state of matters there, a job that the media does, though not fully in Indian Kashmir? Whose responsibility is it to monitor provision of services and rule of law in both administered areas of Kashmir? Is there a role here for external actors? It is up to India? Pakistan? Native Kashmiris?

The delegates are asked to consider who should ultimately be charged with overseeing the quality of life and provision of services in all regions of Kashmir, both before and after a political settlement is put in place. The plan should include an outline of what devices will be put in place to achieve this oversight, and how it will be acted upon and enforced.

C. People all over South Asia have concerned themselves with the Kashmir issue, studying it and developing ideas for reconciliation. With so many potential stakeholders living outside of Kashmir, what will be the role of external parties in resolving the disagreement? What is the role that foreign powers like US, Russia and Saudi Arabia can play without violating the clauses of the Shimla agreement and respecting the aspirations of all the parties concerned?

The delegates are asked to develop a policy that outlines the definition and limits of power that can/should be wielded by external powers and groups in regard to addressing the Kashmir question.

D. In such a complicated political situation such as Kashmir, it can be difficult to define success when it comes to reconciliation. Furthermore, it is not always possible to achieve all objectives because of conflicting interests and institutional instability. What kind of justice should be the priority when it comes to settling the Kashmir dispute? Economic? Social? Military? What would a free and fair Kashmir look like in terms of political, economic and social structure?

Delegates are asked to consider what a just and sustainable political settlement to the Kashmir question could look like, and which parties are necessary to have at the negotiating table.